Carolina Journal Radio No. 886: Better modeling could improve COVID-19 response

From chair to current and the largest city to the smallest and from the statehouse into the schoolhouse Carolina Journal radio your weekly news magazine discussing North Carolina's most of public policy events and issues welcome to Carolina Journal radio why Michiko got during the next hour, Donna Martinez and I will explore some major issues affecting our state a statewide protest group wants North Carolina to reopen as quickly as possible. The covert, 19 economic shutdown pillar why one congressman decided to highlight that group's constitutional rights. The John Locke foundation's CEO turns her attention to neighbors reporting on neighbors when it comes to violations of government shutdown orders the head of the Western North Carolina emergency management department discusses challenges for emergency workers across the state and will turn attention to the COBIT 19 pandemic's potential impact on 2020 elections. Those topics are just ahead. But first, Donna Martinez joins us and she has Carolina Journal headline with North Carolina remaining under a statewide shutdown order, at least until May 8. The focus for Gov. Roy Cooper and his administration has now turned to testing, and a tracing and trends.

Now these are the items that are key to the metrics, the governor says he's gonna be using to decide when he will lift government restrictions on work and movement, but our next guest says that's not quite all the information we need.

He says the Cooper administration should be running more models and very specific models. Don Vandermark is senior fellow with the John Mott foundation. He is also the former Sec. of the Department of environmental quality for the state of North Carolina. Don welcome back to the show.

You are writing a lot about this Sam you started your analysis really with the fact that several North Carolina state senators have been urging the Cooper administration to do more modeling. So exactly what do you believe we should be modeling what should we know that we don't yet know what first, we have talked about modeling modeling can be very simple can be very complex. We know something about modeling and are in our lives when hurricanes forecast.

We will look at these the update of the hurricane and there's hurricane tracking charts are used to seeing the big component of possibility. Cone of uncertainty that actually is and and and and sometimes you see the spaghetti curves and that's that's really individual model runs being run under different conditions. The thing about modeling it was when it gets when you're trying to model something very complicated.

You can imagine where our knowledge is absolute, and so the output is somewhat uncertain what a modelers to modelers tend to look back in time and take historical data and fit their models to their historical data by tweet tweaking some parameters. My hope is that if it fits the past will give you a better idea of the future. Another thing they do is they'll take multiple models, and run them all with the similar scenarios and and see how they compare because each model has some different assumptions built into it and and what the first floor with the senators asked was you all did some modeling early on and and using model by the University of Washington. After a while they DHHS stopped using that model coincident by the way, with time that the that that same model predicted a very very large decrease in coded occurrences. Here, North Carolina. DHHS used another model, modified University Pennsylvania model and they only ran under two conditions, one where there were no restrictions. All everybody just shook hands and then wash their hands and stay at the other horse has not occurred, with which it seldom occurs. I think the other being told restrictions and those two are sort of extreme scenarios and what the senator said as I want to run some more realistic scenarios in between. For example, the Swedish type model which Florida followed with such success, which is let's just focus on the older component of our graphics and those with pre-existing conditions and make sure that they are quarantined, etc. and the rest of the population just goes as they please, that's a different scenario than those other two. The other is how about taking account just everybody washing their hands like a ordinarily would during flu season, and what other whatever other cautions they take so that's it. That's 1/4 scenario that makes a lot of sense my my interest would be to do that to also use other models. For example, run the models that the University of Washington model which is been used by a lot of other state and I would also ask that you should just go granular and run those model at the county by county level.

Interesting point on about county by county because the statewide shutdown order is in fact that it affects the entire state in exactly the same weight we've already heard from and seen some local government officials say you know what I know what's going on on the ground in my community and what happens maybe in one community in the western part of the state is not occurring in the eastern part of the state. It makes no sense at all. Look up Mecklenburg County, wake County, they may have their own set of challenges, but many of the other county sometimes don't even have an occurrence. Yet all of the others have very very few. So these need to be handled differently and we have the machinery in place. We have County health departments that that know their own counties better than anyone.

I would just suggest using some models to help those folks understand where they are. If we have the capabilities to do this kind of additional modeling that would be more granular, as you put it, it seems like that would really help to inform the decision-making as to where we should go not just as a state but as local communities in that state. Why is this not happening I don't understand from a simplistic level, it might be simpler to have everybody do the same thing all the time but from us. From the standpoint of trying to weigh the costs to the economy of these kinds of restrictions versus the benefits are going to be seen in these counties that don't have major challenges that, for example, maybe New York City certainly much lesser extent Mecklenburg County. You're exactly right now is you and I are talking, we have upwards of 800,000 N. Carolinians who have applied for unemployment insurance benefits just in that the last a few weeks because of this, in part because of the statewide shutdown order that is in place, at least until May 8.

I can tell you Don that now I'm a middle-aged woman I I have not seen anything like this in my lifetime.

I am the child of depression era parents. I know that just hearing them talk about it like to talk about it a lot.

They wouldn't easily joke about it in terms of not having enough to eat. Going to work my father when he worked in the fields when he was young, eight, nine years old he had to try to help support the family. It changed my parents as people is that we were living through now for this generation. I think it certainly a lot closer. The ideal is were going to be up to get through this. I'm worried that the unlike a human body that recovers from a disease I'm not as positive that the economy will recover as quickly as the human body there going to be some some some small businesses that are not coming back. And this is going to create a recession and is going to create a severe recession we don't know how long, but it seems to me that this is an example. I think she's pointed out for this generation of a really tough challenge, an existential threat to might say that's being posed by this coronavirus not just by the virus itself but the economic remnants of our economy. After after this passes, I think this can be a lot of unintended consequences that we won't know for years as to how people approach life whether it is their ability to earn a living. Whether it is their physical health and well-being.

Even their view of government and what the role should and should not be may be more of a focus on constitutional freedoms which of course hear the John Locke foundation. We hope that's the case we write about that a lot. You also write about this issue of modeling that we been talking about folks can read that@johnlocke.org Don Vander Bart, senior fellow with the John Locke foundation. Thank you this much more Carolina journal radio to come in just a moment tired of fake names tired of reporters with political axes to grind. What you need to be reading Carolina journal, honest, uncompromising, old-school journalism, you expect and you need even better, the monthly Carolina journal is free to subscribers sign up@carolinajournal.com you'll receive Carolina journal newspaper in your mailbox each month. Investigations into government spending revelations about boondoggles. The powerful leaders are and what they're doing in your name and with your money. We shine a light on it all with the stories and angles.

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We hold government accountable for you will go back to Carolina journal radio I Michiko got is North Carolina wrestles with the best way to reopen the state for business amid the covert, 19 pandemic tens of thousands of people signed up with a social media group, dubbed reopen and see many of them converged in Raleigh on April 14 they protested government orders that keep them from working in operating small businesses. Police broke up that protest and arrested one woman a week later.

Our next guest decided to join a follow-up protest US representative Dan Bishop is North Carolina's congressman representing the ninth district expert joining us.

Thank you for having me Mitch. Good to see good so you could be with you. You two as well and there are plenty of things you could be doing as a member of Congress. Lots of weighty things that that that our nations allegedly branches dealing with why come to Raleigh to participate in this protest.

I can't think of anything more weighty than carrying out the duty that I was sworn to and that's to defend and protect the Constitution of the United States when last week as you lead mentioned in the lead folks that the Raleigh police after you in course of that protest issued that unfortunate tweet that went viral. That said, protest is not an essential activity I knew from that moment that I was going to be at the next reopen MC event because the right to protest right to peaceably assemble, and to petition the government to secure the people by the First Amendment of the Constitution and the Constitution doesn't get suspended under a stay at home order it still exists and still secures important rights and may have to be kept in balance and so are some of the rights and guarantees as well, but I knew that I was going be here to honor and support the great work being done by the people who formed that organization of that group social media group and those like a cross-country, what did you think when you first saw that tweet from Bob from the Raleigh police that got so much attention. I sort of had some sympathy. Frankly, for whatever poor person for twitter tweeter on behalf of the department put that up, but it is it actually that is, there is a lesson in that which is we tend to forget about fundamental things. Sometimes we get bogged down in the details of everyday governance and I think that Roy Cooper has made the same error that they've that that the police whoever was at the police department, but that's dumb tweet out and what I mean by that is the governor even as time there are times gone by. Under his stay home order. He has a please allow that to remain now pending indefinitely. He knows he's not articulated when it will end up more. Moreover, he has not set forth any plan with definitive criteria. For one, it would cease to exist. He's talked about this little alliterative gimmick of slogan testing tracing and trends but it doesn't not really clear what he means and more to the point. One of the rights secured by the First Amendment is the right of a free media right of the press Free Press, and that implies that government will be transparent and will disclose especially when in the middle of an emergency in which confidence would be promoted by disclosing information in the disclosure by the governor and his administration has been sorely lacking. Same for county officials that we don't know what models the governor depending on any, to the extent depending on a volunteer group of epidemiologists. He is not had them put all of their information out in public so that it can be vetted is exactly what they should be doing. We are chatting with US representative Dan Bishop represents North Carolina's ninth district also remembers that Roy Cooper from your days working in the state Senate at end. One of the things that has cropped up here is that when people talked about reopening North Carolina. One of the responses from the other side is.

But hey, this is a health emergency me. People are going back to work were going to see this pandemic recall kinds of havoc and potentially major loss of life. Why do we not have to just to defer to the health experts on this is fundamentally contrary to our system of governance and our overview of the dignity of each individual to expect anyone to stand and have their privileges and rights suspended without explanation that we just don't do it that way and mellowing to say something I want to be very clear about the coven 19 pandemic is very serious threat and we need to maintain social distancing behaviors and they need to go on even though the lockdown needs to end. What we see in all the data that is available if you examine it carefully as it did the numbers. The anticipated projected volumes of bed needs an ICU knees as they all fallen below expectations repeatedly models I've had to be revised downward.

There's an indication there that the lockdowns have overshot their mark that was it and and perhaps one reason that they been. They have those things have not been been predicted even though the models incorporate distancing is because it may well be because that they didn't take into account the effects of voluntary distancing before the lockdown orders took effect, but in any event, we cleared it we seem to have exceeded the market we need and so now these vague justifications shifting rationales the governors offer offering to just say he's gonna lift this sometime in the future, but he does not win, they won't do. That's all there is to we mentioned that to the April 14 event is what prompted you to come to Raleigh so you participated in the April 21 event what you think going down there and and hanging out those books.

It will restore government renewed my pride as an American that's not really as I was talking with folks I was with as we were departing it is that there's a there's a there's a an exhilaration that comes from seeing the people stand up for liberty liberty already is that it doesn't get passed on the bloodstream has to be fought for and protected. And every generation and every few years there's always a threat to freedom. I saw it tweet someone to responding or criticizing me as I drove over here that you know that you just just think people forget about how important this is and that it never never goes away, even in an emergency. Your rights are subsumed by the state in this country.

That's what this country's very essence is, as a member of Congress, or as a North Carolinian in general what you hope happens next in the state of the part I think we need transparency and we need a plan so transparent.

Both of those are very fulsome words and they each mean a lot to the governor needs to turn a new page with respect to voice his Department of Health and Human Services is operating. It's not sufficient say will trust us.

We have experts they'll make your decisions for you. They got put out data they got put out models there models have to make sense. They have to track actual outcomes or they have to admit that the wrong we need a plan under which we continue to maintain very rigorous social distancing activities under which the governor sets goals and moves in the direction of reopening the state and he really ought to retract something that I think has been filed in state after state, and is fundamentally ill-conceived. This notion of categorizing people and businesses as essential and nonessential. Nobody in our society is nonessential US representative Dan Bishop is North Carolina's congressman representing the ninth district. Thanks much for joining us. Thank you, Mitch will have on Carolina journal radio in just a moment.

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In a recent addition, she focused on the pandemic's impact on neighbors. Would you tell on your neighbor for not practicing safe social distancing. Just a few weeks ago. No one had ever heard of the term social distancing now dominates our lives and people are calling the authorities on their friends and neighbors who they don't think are complying with all the rules a sister think tank in another state got a knock on the door from local city officials, who set a complaint was called in against them.

They weren't adhering to safe social distancing guidelines and even questioning whether they were essential workers quick side note, really dark place when government is determining who is and who isn't an essential worker back to telling on your neighbor.

Reason magazine put it best. As an epidemic switching seems to be competing with the virus itself. And it spread in the first few weeks of the shutdown here in North Carolina Charlotte had over 1400 complaints called into the Police Department wake County had nearly 500 with the most at 164 complaints coming from Terry that we all acknowledge that COBIT 19 is very serious to very serious medical and health issue people are contracting the disease and some are getting very sick and unfortunately some don't survive. But as we concern ourselves with the spread of COBIT 19. It's also appropriate to worry about collateral damage.

Part of that collateral damage is what we are doing to our free society in a society that rewards petty tyrants trust breaks down 70 community bonds then people are just isolated physically isolated. Emotionally that's dangerous and can be long-lasting for positive ideas on how we can recover how we can address COBIT 19 John lock.work and for all the latest code 19 news, check out the award-winning Carolina journal Carolina journal.com. Please also check out our donate button in the upper right-hand corner every time you invest now is an investment in our future for freedom.

If you have questions, feedback, or you been told on email me at the rightaoc@johnlocke.org. Stay safe and stay healthy.

That's Amy Cook the right AOC.

She's the John Locke foundation CEO. She mentioned you can respond to her commentary by writing to the rightaoc@johnlocke.org you can follow her on Facebook and Twitter at the right will return with more Carolina journal radio where doubling down on freedom at Carolina journal radio were proud to bring you stories that impact your life and your wallet. And now get twice as much freedom when you also listen to our podcast headlock available on iTunes and@johnlocke.org/podcast headlock is a little bit different. It's a no holds barred discussion that challenges softheaded ideas from the left and the right, like Carolina journal radio headlock is smart and timely but with headlock you'll hear more about the culture wars get some more humor as well. We guarantee great information and a good time � that's listen to Carolina journal radio each week and listen to headlock to remember, you can listen to head knock@johnlocke.org/podcast or subscriber download each week iTunes Carolina journal radio and headlock just what you need to stay informed and stay entertained both brought to you in the name of freedom by the John Locke foundation will Qu�bec Carolina journal radio I Mitch Coe got local emergency workers are among those affected most directly by the coven 19 pandemic state lawmakers heard recently from Will Keller emergency services director for McDowell County and vice chairman of the state association of EMS administrators will were all we really we Keller discussed how emergency departments are coping with COBIT. 19. He discussed the value of a relatively new innovation.

Community paramedics we really live on the you will all we will only be provided unity. We live program will improve safety and increase our also among the top concerns for emergency workers access to personal protective equipment, also called PPE. We are here.

All will know you stay on really you are really Keller says. Emergency workers are also taking steps to ensure they don't spread the disease on will will you will only 90 children. She is normally basis their session. Clearly, childcare is an issue for those spending time working emergency services. You will hear all that's Will Keller emergency services director for McDowell County.

He also highlighted the importance of relaxing the state regulation will will will will will require waiver which allows you a reason to draw on really here. How could a local emergency team get relief from the same rules. One little regional I need you tell us is turnaround for those requests is quick.

Keller noted the important role of people outside state and local government we have an ongoing call online. The is all I you you reach out our way. Certainly, all here's the lawmakers asked Keller what kinds of equipment to emergency workers need love you will all all you you you you. That's Will Keller with McDowell County emergency services and the state association of EMS administrators. He shared emergency workers. COBIT 19 concerns during a recent presentation for state lawmakers will return with more Carolina journal radio really influence you either have it or you don't and at the John lot foundation.

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We are the John Locke foundation. Welcome back to Carolina journal radio I'm Donna Martinez with 19 dominating the news and our lives. It's easy to forget that we actually have a big time election coming up just about six months from now Pres. Gov. US Senate U.S. House council estate and all members of the North Carolina Gen. assembly.

So what about the campaigns.

How do you campaign during a crisis. Rick Henderson is editor-in-chief of Carolina journal. He's been following some of these races and joins us now. Welcome back to the shelter. Thank you anybody campaigning during this or are they just really blotted out, of the new cycle.

Well, they can't campaigner the traditional manner, because he can't have picnics, they can't go to events and forms things like that or say cancel shake hands with his babies, but they are doing a lot of online communication affect a day does not go by that I don't get at least three or four solicitations from someone because I got on the mailing list through the campaign was up to the campaigns of the shaking people down, but there really has changed things and we had us restoring Carolina journal.com which talked about how things change. Some candidates are choosing not to do a lot of fundraising right now because I don't really think it's appropriate.

With the economy is as a freefall to try to ask people for money, others are completely shameless about it all the time so it just a part of the pens are now more than ever, I need you, how that perspective plays out.

This is a sort of campaigns can be difficult I think for challengers to break through this.

Incumbents have huge advantages because anytime they wish to gain audience, they can simply say I want to talk about something in media outlets will flock to fall so it's it is a difficult time for people who are on the outside to try to break through.

There's hope, of course, that you're going to see something approaching a more traditional campaign by Labor Day, but again that still remains to be seen.

Speaking of riding high and getting a lot of media attention. Gov. Roy Cooper. He has been presiding over the state updates on the statewide shutdown order and also the the pandemic and how it's going several different polls showing him doing really really well amongst Democrats his own party, but Republicans and independents it as well. He is well over 50%.

Is this race for governor, which is Ronnie and Stan Forrest on the Republican side is the race really why Cooper's to lose them it's going to be very difficult for us to break through unless something, unfortunately catastrophic happens and that's the situation that you often find yourself in if your challenger going against the governor who's dealing with the crisis and his management is getting fairly high marks. Now governor forests constituency. All are largely comprised of the source of people who tend to oppose a lot of the shutdown orders and the like would tend to say that they go too far, but need to be relaxed, but it turns out that so far people tend to be favoring at least the concept of continuing to do a very gradual reopening part of that has to do with the fact that Washington is decided to have our grandchildren provide all the money to keep people float as much as possible, but you never can tell what happened, Jos�.

If it Labor Day, North Carolina, for instance, is several weeks behind its neighboring states in reopening the economy. The neighboring states are doing pretty well, North Carolina still stuck in neutral. That could be an issue that the governor force runs on, but the problems he has his people in his own party aren't necessarily helping about that Sen. Tom Tillis is running for election is basically backing so it is makes it even a bigger challenge. Besides that, that was then forcibly strengthens grassroots support going to every county in his Boston meeting. Lots of people you can't do that right now to your point about things happening around the state. The members of the Gen. assembly right now everybody is really trying to be bipartisan in terms of supporting the governor because were all in this together.

It's a public health issue and all that but you starting to see cracks and disagreements not only amongst members of the Gen. assembly, but local officials when it comes to running those races for all hundred and 70 seats in the general assembly you think the pandemic is going to become an issue in terms of wealth.

Maybe some sections, counties, regions of the state where it is hardly hit and therefore they feel like they were on unduly bearing the economic burden of of the shutdown, you anticipate any of that going up there maybe some of that that happens, there will be some areas.

The state say we were sick we what we were singled out everybody was treated with a one-size-fits-all shutdown and guess what we were doing okay and where we have the opportunity to reopen our economy is doing better and we were denied that and so that could well be the theme of the campaign in the fall. I also should mention that the general assembly is in session, as we are taping the segment they are likely to come back again mid-to-late May they may come back again in the summer and so they are not allowed to do a lot of fundraising while they're in session. If it turns out that there is a lengthy session.

I would guess that the session. The session that they do. Starting in July when they really have a good idea of how much money that they have coming in those maybe long sessions so it's quite possible that the traditional campaign may not kick off until very late in the season and so the normal time when people would be doing fundraisers and doing events and things like that, that's going to be pretty much closed off to interesting about the fiscal issues that were facing because on the one hand it seems like Republicans in general running for the Gen. assembly would be able to make the argument take. We have been good fiscal stewards and therefore we have a rainy day fund and now it's proven that we were right to put away money because now we can help people on the other hand, Democrats who in general want a bigger, more robust government presence would be able to say look, time of crisis, its government came through for you. Well Democrats making it are you because you're continuing to argue for Medicaid expansion and this is one of the arguments that Republicans have zero interest in largely for principal reasons, but also to have a very major fiscal argument to make about this is that Medicaid rolls are going to grow because people are losing health insurance because of losing their jobs, observe their private insurance companies no longer covering them. Then they're going to go on the Medicaid but to include Medicaid expansion, and to add a whole new population of folks who would not qualified anyway then that's going to cause further drains of state coffers and the state government has to provide fairly high percentage of that money so in this way, Medicaid expansion is going to be used as a campaign issue, but is not really wanted much of a policy issue.

I think this year healthcare health insurance likely to be an issue in the presidential race as well. We know North Carolina is a battleground. Is this a trump state or is this a presumably Joe Biden stated again.

Hard to say. I think it's probably going to be a very close state once again and the part of this has to do with the fact that the president the president's base seems to be very solidly behind him and remained that way and you saw that during some of the recent protests at the state capital. He saw a flock from support out there. VP Biden is going to get probably lots and lots of endorsements from the African-American community from some traditional Democratic stronghold groups and so this will be a battle as they say about exactly going to be the key is is and always it is right to be a fascinating race for all sorts of reasons, it even before Cuba 19 it was shaping up to be fascinating, particularly presidential and gubernatorial races in the Senate race, Carolina journal will be following all of these key races you can log onto Carolina journal.com to check at the very latest election coverage Rick Henderson is editor-in-chief. Thank you Rick thank you that's all the time we have for the program this week on behalf of Mitch go back.

I'm Donna Martinez. Join us again next week for more Carolina journal radio Carolina journal radio is a program of the John one. To learn more about the John Locke foundation donations support programs like Carolina journal radio send email to development John Locke call 18661665534636 Carolina journal radio is the John line foundation. Carolina is maintaining Carolina broadcasting system, Inc. all opinions expressed on this program did not merely station for more information about the show.

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